The Role of Sea Level Rise Information in the Formation of Migration Intentions of Vietnam’s Population
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank United Nations Development Programme in Vietnam for permission to use this dataset. Also, the authors thank Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen (UNDP) for her valuable comments during the analysis.
How to Cite
Nguyen Thi Minh H., Ha Tuan A. The Role of Sea Level Rise Information in the Formation of Migration Intentions of Vietnam’s Population. DEMIS. Demographic Research. 2022. Vol. 2. No. 1. P. 175–190. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2022.2.1.14 (in Russ.).
Abstract
Human migration associated with climate change, extreme weather events, including sea-level rise, is a growing concern. While the sea-level rise is not the main cause, its role as a driver of migration cannot be denied. According to experts, the risk of extreme weather conditions, such as rising sea levels for migration, compared to other causes (such as terrorism), will significantly increase due to the negative impacts of climate change. Climate change will gradually progress in the future. However, people, especially in developing countries such as Vietnam, still do not understand all the dangers of flooding due to rising sea levels, so their response is often passive and unreasonable. It is estimated that 31 million people in Vietnam, or about a third of the population, could be affected by sea-level rise by 2050. This could lead to the relocation of some people to other places and an increase in the number of so-called “climate refugees” in the future. Using a portion of the individual-level survey dataset from the 2020 Vietnam Provincial Administration Performance Index (PAPI), the article explores the role of sea-level rise information in flood-impacted migration. Data were collected from 7468 people across the country using five different question options for five randomly selected groups of people. The results of the analysis using regression models show that with a high degree of consistency, the higher the level of flood anxiety, the more people tend to move to another location permanently. In particular, when controlling for the variables of demography, income, etc., that transparency, completeness, and clarity of information about sea-level rise tend to increase the mobility of people to respond to floods. This shows that increasing information on the sea-level rise can help improve public understanding of flood and climate change risks, enabling them to make informed decisions, transparency, and support to reduce risks.
Keywords:
migration, sea level rise, climate change, information, risk reduction, Vietnam
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17. McOmber C., Panikowski A., McKune S., Bartels W., Russo S. Investigating Climate Information Services through a Gendered Lens. CCAFS Working Paper No. 42. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), 2013. 49 p. URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/27887.
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20. Donner S. D., Webber S. Obstacles to Climate Change Adaptation Decisions: A Case Study of Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Protection Measures in Kiribati. Sustainability Science. 2014. Vol. 9. Issue 3. Pp. 331–345. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-014-0242-z.
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25. Leatherman S. P. Social and Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise. In: Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences / Douglas B. C., M. S. Kearney, S. P. Leatherman (Eds.). International Geophysics Series, Volume 75. San Diego: Academic Press, 2001. Pp. 181–223. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0074-6142(01)80011-5.
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33. Lazo J. K., Morss R. E., Demuth J. L. 300 Billion Served: Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2009. Vol. 90. Issue 6. Pp. 785–798. URL: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2604.1.
34. Roncoli C., Ingram K., Kirshen P. Reading the Rains: Local Knowledge and Rainfall Forecasting among Farmers of Burkina Faso. Society and Natural Resources. 2002. Vol. 15. Issue 5. Pp. 411–430. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920252866774.
35. Gilles J., Thomas J. L., Valdivia C., Yucra E. S. Laggards or Leaders: Conservers of Traditional Agricultural Knowledge in Bolivia. Rural Sociology. 2013. Vol. 78. Issue 1. Pp. 51–74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ruso.12001.
36. Irwin A. From Deficit to Democracy (Re-visited). Public Understanding of Science. 2014. Vol. 23. Issue 1. Pp. 71–76. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662513510646.
37. Evans L., Milfont T. L., Lawrence J. Considering Local Adaptation Increases Willingness to Mitigate. Global Environmental Change. 2014. Vol. 25. Pp. 69–75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.013.
38. Carr E. R. Placing the Environment in Migration: Environment, Economy, and Power in Ghana’s Central Region. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space. 2005. Vol. 37. Issue 5. Pp. 925–946. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1068/a3754.
39. Perez C., Jones E. M., Kristjanson P., et al. How Resilient are Farming Households and Communities to a Changing Climate in Africa? A Gender-Based perspective. Global Environmental Change. 2015. Vol. 34. Pp. 95–107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.003.
40. McKune S. L., Borresen E. C., Young A. G., et al. Climate Change through a Gendered Lens: Examining Livestock Holder Food Security. Global Food Security. 2015. Issue 6. Pp. 1–8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2015.05.001.
41. Felli R., Castree N. Neoliberalising Adaptation to Environmental Change: Foresight or Foreclosure? Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space. 2012. Vol. 44. Issue 1. Pp. 1–4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1068/a44680.
Article
Received: 15.11.2021
Accepted: 28.02.2022
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APA
Nguyen Thi Minh, H., & Ha Tuan, A. (2022). The Role of Sea Level Rise Information in the Formation of Migration Intentions of Vietnam’s Population. DEMIS. Demographic Research, 2(1), 175–190. https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2022.2.1.14
Section
Foreign Demographics
