Approaches to Assessing Russia’s Migration Potential
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The reported study was funded by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF), research project No. 24-28-01328 “Russia’s repatriation potential in foreign countries: assessing the scale”.
How to Cite
Subbotin A.A. Approaches to Assessing Russia’s Migration Potential. DEMIS. Demographic Research. 2025. Vol. 5. No. 1. P. 176-192. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2025.5.1.11 (in Russ.).
Abstract
The article is devoted to the analysis of migration potential of Russia abroad, considering its relevance in the context of global changes and demographic crisis in the country. The study is based on population census data, expert estimates, and own calculations. The research methodology contains a study of the theoretical foundations of the topic and an analysis of the estimates of migration potential presented in the scientific literature, including an assessment of their actuality and applicability. The historical dynamics of the spread of the Russian language, its role in the formation of Russian-speaking communities abroad, and the possibilities of using migration potential to strengthen international relations and solve demographic problems in Russia are explored. Based on the results of the work, it is concluded that the existing studies on migration potential are significantly outdated and require updating. It is noted that the factors of migration potential are the population number and migration attitudes that influence the decision to leave the country of residence. Previously, to study the latter aspects, it was necessary to conduct sociological surveys, which significantly limited the availability and comparability of the obtained results. Currently, it is possible to use alternative sources of information, such as electronic social networks, search engines, etc. The conclusion of the paper highlights the need to update data on migration potential using alternative data. The scientific contribution of the article is to interpret the importance of creating a comprehensive assessment of migration potential, which can guide government agencies to effectively use resources to work with the Russian-speaking population outside the country. The results of the study can be applied in the field of migration policy.
Keywords:
migration potential, Russian-speaking population, Russian diaspora, repatriation, migration policy
References
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17. Zubarev, Yu. A. Estimation Problems of the Migratory Potential of the Population. RUDN Journal of Political Science. 2013. No. 1. Pp. 15–21. (In Russ.).
18. Migratsionnaya situatsiya v stranakh SNG [Migration situation in the CIS countries]. Ed. by Zh. A. Zayonchkovskaya ; Center for the Study of Problems of Forced Migration in the CIS countries. Independent Research Council on Migration of the CIS and Baltic Countries. Moscow : Complex-Progress Publishing House, 1999. 286 p. ISBN 5-89342-013-6. (In Russ.).
19. Bazhenova, E. S., Ostrovsky, A. V. Potentsial kitayskoy migratsii v Rossiyu: otsenki i perspektivy [Potential of Chinese Migration to Russia: Assessments and Prospects]. Migratsiya i razvitiye [Migration and development] : Proceedings of the International Conference dedicated to the 85th Anniversary of the Birth of Professor D. I. Valentey and the 40th Anniversary of the Founding of the Department of Population at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, September 13–15, 2015. Moscow: Moscow State University Publishing House, 2007. Pp. 345–355. (In Russ.).
20. Tsapenko, I. P., Yurevich M. A. Nowcasting Migration Using Statistics of Online Queries. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2022. Vol. 15. No. 1. P. 74–89. DOI 10.15838/esc.2022.1.79.4. (In Russ.).
21. Subbotin, A. A. Mezhdunarodnaya intellektual'naya migratsiya v Rossii: vyzovy i perspektivy [International intellectual migration in Russia: challenges and prospects]. Moscow : Znanie-M Publishing House, 2024. 272 p. ISBN 978-5-00187-744-8. DOI 10.38006/00187-744-8.2024.1.272. (In Russ.).
22. Vorobieva, O. D., Subbotin, A. A., Mishchuk, S. N. Main Approaches to Assessing the Scale of Settlement of Russian-Speaking Population Abroad. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2024. Vol. 17, No. 5. Pp. 219–231. DOI 10.15838/esc.2024.5.95.12. (In Russ.).
23. Perevendentsev, V. I. Sovremennaya migratsiya naseleniya Rossii v osveshchenii tsentral’nykh gazet [Modern migration of the population of Russia as covered by central newspapers]. Migratsiya i informatsiya [Migration and information]. Ed. by Zh. A. Zayonchkovskaya ; Center for the Study of Problems of Forced Migration in the CIS, Independent Research Council on Migration of the CIS and Baltic Countries. Moscow, 2000. Pp. 32–64. (In Russ.).
2. Ryazantsev, S. V. Russian Diaspora Abroad or Russian Speaking Communities? Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2016. No. 12. Pp. 84–94. (In Russ.).
3. Ryazantsev, S. V., Pismennaya, Е. Е., Lukyanets, A. S. Approaches to the Identification and Evaluation of Number Russian-Speaking Communities Abroad. Scientific Review. Series 2. Human sciences. 2016. No. 6. Pp. 3–12. (In Russ.).
4. Arefyev, A. L. The Russian Language in the World: The Past, Present, and Future. Slovo.ru: Baltic accent. 2015. No. 4. Pp. 7–21. (In Russ.).
5. Arefyev, A. L. The Russian Language in the World: Past, Present, and Future. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2014. Vol. 847, No. 10. Pp. 31–38. DOI 10.7868/S086958731410003X. (In Russ.).
6. Gerasimova, V. A. Rossiyskiye sootechestvenniki za rubezhom [Russian compatriots abroad]. Post-Soviet Studies. 2019. Vol. 2, No. 1. Pp. 904–922. (In Russ.).
7. Тeurtrie, D. The Russian Question in the Post-Soviet Period. Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. History. 2017. Vol. 62, No. 1. Pp. 43–56. DOI 10.21638/11701/spbu02.2017.104. (In Russ.).
8. Zayonchkovskaya, Zh. A. Rossiya: migratsiya v raznom masshtabe vremeni [Russia: migration on different time scales]. Moscow : Adamant Publishing Hous, 1999. 68 p. (In Russ.).
9. Rybakovsky, L. L. Migratsionnyy potentsial: kriterii otsenki i sovremennyye masshtaby [Migration potential: criteria of assessment and present-day size]. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. 2011. No. 4. Pp. 24–34. (In Russ.).
10. Denisenko, M. B. Emigratsiya iz Rossii po dannym zarubezhnoy statistiki [Emigration from Russia according to foreign statistics]. Mir Rossii [Universe of Russia]. 2003. Vol. 12, No. 3. Pp. 157–169. (In Russ.).
11. Mukomel, V. I. Kto priyedet v Rossiyu iz «novogo zarubezh’ya»? [Who will come to Russia from the “new abroad”?] Mir Rossii [Universe of Russia]. 2003. Vol. 12. No. 3. Pp. 130–146. (In Russ.).
12. Grishanova, A. G., Kozhevnikova, N. I. Migration Potential: Theoretical Aspects. Population. 2016. Vol. 1 (71), No. 1. 2016. Pp. 42–51. (In Russ.).
13. Grishanova, A. G., Kozhevnikova, N. I., Rybakovsky, L. L. Migratsionnyy potentsial Rossii v novom zarubezh’ye [Migration potential of Russia in the new abroad]. Moscow: Econ-Inform, 2016. 183 p. ISBN 978-5-9908933-4-4. (In Russ.).
14. Iontsev, V. A., Subbotin, A. A. Current Scenarios for the Demographic Future of the World: The Cases of Russia and Germany . Baltic Region. 2018. Vol. 10, No. 3. Pp. 4–18. DOI 10.5922/2079-8555-2018-3-1. (In Russ.).
15. Vorobyova, O. D. et al. Migratsionnyye protsessy v Rossii [Migration processes in Russia]. Ed. by V. V. Lokosov, L. L. Rybakovsky. Moscow : Ekon-Inform Publishing House, 2014. 383 p. ISBN 978-5-9506-1115-5. (In Russ.).
16. Goryacheva, M. A. Dynamics of Russian Language Proficiency in the Russian Federation based on Data of the 1989-2020 Population Censuses. Sociolinguistics. 2023. Vol. 1, No. 13. Pp. 30–48. DOI 10.37892/2713-2951-1-13-30-48. (In Russ.).
17. Zubarev, Yu. A. Estimation Problems of the Migratory Potential of the Population. RUDN Journal of Political Science. 2013. No. 1. Pp. 15–21. (In Russ.).
18. Migratsionnaya situatsiya v stranakh SNG [Migration situation in the CIS countries]. Ed. by Zh. A. Zayonchkovskaya ; Center for the Study of Problems of Forced Migration in the CIS countries. Independent Research Council on Migration of the CIS and Baltic Countries. Moscow : Complex-Progress Publishing House, 1999. 286 p. ISBN 5-89342-013-6. (In Russ.).
19. Bazhenova, E. S., Ostrovsky, A. V. Potentsial kitayskoy migratsii v Rossiyu: otsenki i perspektivy [Potential of Chinese Migration to Russia: Assessments and Prospects]. Migratsiya i razvitiye [Migration and development] : Proceedings of the International Conference dedicated to the 85th Anniversary of the Birth of Professor D. I. Valentey and the 40th Anniversary of the Founding of the Department of Population at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, September 13–15, 2015. Moscow: Moscow State University Publishing House, 2007. Pp. 345–355. (In Russ.).
20. Tsapenko, I. P., Yurevich M. A. Nowcasting Migration Using Statistics of Online Queries. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2022. Vol. 15. No. 1. P. 74–89. DOI 10.15838/esc.2022.1.79.4. (In Russ.).
21. Subbotin, A. A. Mezhdunarodnaya intellektual'naya migratsiya v Rossii: vyzovy i perspektivy [International intellectual migration in Russia: challenges and prospects]. Moscow : Znanie-M Publishing House, 2024. 272 p. ISBN 978-5-00187-744-8. DOI 10.38006/00187-744-8.2024.1.272. (In Russ.).
22. Vorobieva, O. D., Subbotin, A. A., Mishchuk, S. N. Main Approaches to Assessing the Scale of Settlement of Russian-Speaking Population Abroad. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2024. Vol. 17, No. 5. Pp. 219–231. DOI 10.15838/esc.2024.5.95.12. (In Russ.).
23. Perevendentsev, V. I. Sovremennaya migratsiya naseleniya Rossii v osveshchenii tsentral’nykh gazet [Modern migration of the population of Russia as covered by central newspapers]. Migratsiya i informatsiya [Migration and information]. Ed. by Zh. A. Zayonchkovskaya ; Center for the Study of Problems of Forced Migration in the CIS, Independent Research Council on Migration of the CIS and Baltic Countries. Moscow, 2000. Pp. 32–64. (In Russ.).
Article
Received: 12.12.2024
Accepted: 31.03.2025
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
APA
Subbotin, A. A. (2025). Approaches to Assessing Russia’s Migration Potential. DEMIS. Demographic Research, 5(1), 176-192. https://doi.org/10.19181/demis.2025.5.1.11
Section
Demographic and Migration Policy
